April 2019 - Chart of the Month

CHART OF THE MONTH

The black arrows display the increasing 3-Month Treasury Yield compared to the decreasing or flat 10-Year Treasury Yield. The red arrow show the general trend of quarterly GDP growth following a flattening or inverted yield curve. In all of the last three recessions there was a notable time lag between the date the yield curve inverted and when GDP growth was negative for consecutive quarters.