February 2020 - Staying Positive in a Very Negative World

This headline could relate to many, many topics nowadays. We could be talking about everything from interest rates to politics to everyday life in our country. It is harder than ever to stay above the fray and away from all of the negativity in today’s world. There is no shortage of negative news, negative talking points and just general negativity – and that’s just when looking at interest rates! (OK, that was a pretty bad joke).

All kidding aside, the world is awash in negative news and it is harder than ever to remain positive, but that is a choice that we all must make, each and every day, and usually many times during the same day. Why? Because the alternative is to succumb to a negative outlook, a negative way of life and all of the crippling side effects that come with that negativity.

Pertaining to interest rates, we believe that they are headed further downward and eventually will turn negative in the United States as they have in many other regions of the world. It is simple demographics as most Western nations experience an aging population who need higher allocations to safer investments and who need to park more and more capital into bonds. How long will this trend last? Who is to say, but it certainly doesn’t appear to be short-lived. Let’s face it, this is the new normal when it comes to the world of interest rates. A whole generation of investors and investment professionals will only know a low interest rate world and all of the market dynamics that come with those low and eventually negative interest rates.

So does this mean that our outlook on the economy also should be negative? We don’t think so. We believe strongly in the long-term power of the U.S. economy and we believe that our markets are resilient and will remain with moderate strength throughout 2020. However, this is certainly looking a lot like bird-in-the-hand time to me. Call it what you want, but this seems like a great time to take the current best offer, whether selling or recapitalizing a business. This appears to be a time to fear more a missed opportunity to sell, recap or refinance a business and less a time to fear that you will look back and wish you held on for a few more dollars.

But back to this idea of staying positive amid a bunch of negative news. The constant negativity in the news cycle also appears to be the new normal of our modern world. And it seems like every news outlet has taken the “can-you-top-this” negative news story game to a new level, with no end in sight. It takes discipline and great effort to form and establish the habit of blocking out the negative chatter, the negative voices and to focus on the positive and to do all that we can do to make the world a better place. Like my father used to tell me, it is usually harder to do the right thing, but I should do the right thing anyway. It is easier to stretch the truth or even outright tell falsehoods, but I should tell the truth anyway. It is easier to give up and do nothing, but I should keep trying and do something positive. It is usually easier to be negative, but I have learned that success and accomplishment begin with a positive approach, a positive thought and positive actions.

The deal business is a ruthless, take-no-prisoners, kill-or-be-killed, real-life version of the Lord of Flies, right? No actually it isn’t. At least, it doesn’t have to be that way. It’s just business and staying positive leads to better outcomes for everyone. People can actually do the right thing, have a bright outlook and a positive attitude even when working through a negotiation and even when closing a complex transaction. We hope that we can remember this throughout 2020.